Breeders' Cup Distaff Race & Pace Analysis

Breeders' Cup Distaff

When the 2005 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships take place on October 29, Saturday, champion horses from all over North America and as far as Europe and Japan will be pitted against one another. Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, which has the world's biggest dirt race course of any thoroughbred track, will play host to eight major races on a single championship day card: Breeders' Cup Classic, Distaff, Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, Sprint, Turf. Breeders' Cup Distaff race and pace analysis point to strong contenders being Ashado, Dream of Summer, Hollywood Story, In the Gold, Island Fashion, Island Sand, Round Pond, Shadow Cast, Sis City, Smuggler, Society Selection, Spun Sugar, Stellar Jayne, Summerly, Sweet Symphony, Tarlow, and Two Trail Sioux.

The Breeders' Cup Distaff is a competitive race having a usually large field, with many race contenders having a truly legitimate shot. A majority of competing horses attempting third or fourth in the early going should have the race be dominated by early speed, and pressure the pace. Some will get caught up in a speed duel, seeing the speed as their only chance to win. Others will stay close, setting up a pace rightly fast for a late run without being torturous. Who comes out on top is often decided by the pace. 2004 Distaff champion Ashado, who returns to the race this year, is the class of the field. The defending champ has done better in the past by conceding the lead early. Ashado can go the distance with early speed stalkers, as well as outrun those strongly closing late to the wire.

The Distaff race also does set up well for those likely to close late. The strong ones here include Island Fashion and Stellar Jayne who finished third in the 2004 Distaff. Island Fashion is likely to come from just off the pace, and Stellar Jayne from further back. The Distaff's pace and large field work for these horses. They are dangerous if they can run back in great form. Both Stellar Jayne and Society Selection are presently in great form to close late. Although Society Selection has run on the lead, she does better when coming from farther back, besting twelve in at large fields like the Distaff's.

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