Breeders Cup Mile Handicapping Tips

Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Mile Races

Horse Betting Tips & Racing Picks

The 2016 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships is taking place on November 6, at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, featuring eight championship horse races. Strong race contenders for the Breeders' Cup Mile include Byword, Canford Cliffs, Courageous Cat, Court Vision, Get Serious, Get Stormy, Gio Ponti, Goldikova (Ireland), Makfi, Paco Boy, Proviso (Great Britain), Rip Van Winkle, Sidney's Candy, The Usual Q.T., Tizdejavu, and Victor's Cry. The best of luck on handicapping the 2016 Breeders' Cup Mile!

The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) is widely regarded as one of the most challenging races on the Breeders' Cup championships day card. The Breeders' Cup Mile winners are traditionally seen as distance specialists with the ability to sustain speed past sprint distances and possess a push-button blazing turn of foot that can propel them to make their move when the jockey determines that the time is right. If a runner takes one bad step or a hole closes in front of him, any hope of crossing the wire in front is severely compromised.

The Breeders' Cup Mile, as with the two other turf races on the day, indeed puts "world" in the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships. Of the 18 different horses that triumphed over the course of 25 runnings of this $1.5 million series, nine were bred in Europe, including 2008 & 2009 victor Goldikova (Ireland), 2002 victor Domedriver (Ireland) and stablemate Six Perfections (France) who won in 2004.

Nine runners actually based in Europe, having run their previous race across the pond, have invaded North America to claim victory - including 2003 hero Six Perfections, the three-year-old French filly who beat the boys. 5-1 shot Six Perfections stayed in between horses back in eighth early, then came on strong down the stretch splitting rivals to win by 3/4 length over 12-1 shot Touch of the Blues at Santa Anita Park.

The Breeders' Cup Mile sends more horses to the post than any of the other Breeders' Cup championship events. An average of 13.2 starters per year leaves the gate in search of glory. This in itself should pose trouble for the post time favorites as crowded fields lead to bad trips, but the "chalks" have more than held their own, finishing in front a respectable 31.5% of the time. Though Domedriver's $54 payoff lit up the boards in 2002, the only other two true "bombs" to ever find themselves in the winner's circle was 1986 winner Last Tycoon (Ireland) at $73.80 and 1991 winner Opening Verse at $55.40.

The most stand-out handicapping trend at the Breeders' Cup Mile is the need to stay off of the lead. Only one winner in the previous 25 runnings of the event was in front at the first call of the race and hung around to the end. This was the immortal Lure, who took the lead out of the gate in 1992 and improved his position to cross the wire 3 lengths in front. In 1993, he stalked behind the pace setting Ski Paradise before taking over before the half to once more finish in front, becoming one of only three runners, along with Miesque and Da Hoss, to enjoy a successful repeat in the event.

Outside of this notable exception, horses coming from off the pace tend to rule the Breeders' Cup Mile. The average beaten lengths of the winner at the first call of the race is 4.63 lengths. Four previous Breeders' Cup Mile champions - Miesque, Royal Academy, War Chant, and Val Royal (France) - closed from over 7 lengths back to claim victory.

A second considerable trend in the Breeders' Cup Mile is that all winners share a penchant for the distance and surface. Horses trying to run a distance at which they have never been successful previously, or dropping back to a mile after making their last prep at distances greater than 9 furlongs, generally met with failure at the race.