Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Handicapping Tips

Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Races

Horse Betting Tips & Racing Picks

The 2019 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships is taking place on November 5, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, featuring eight championship horse races. Strong race contenders for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies include Alienation, Awesome Feather, Maple Forest, R Heat Lightning, Rigoletta, Stopspendingmaria, Summer Laugh, Tap for Luck, Tell a Kelly, Valiant Passion, Wickedly Perfect and Wonderlandbynight The best of luck on handicapping the 2019 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies!

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) is the only Breeders' Cup championship race to be won exclusively by Americans. From the controversial Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies inaugural race in 1984, when Fran's Valentine was disqualified for interference in the stretch drive, earning the late-charging Outstandingly her victory, all the way to 2004, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies has really been all-American action for handicapping.

The $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies has been a showcase of stellar performances and has served as a good barometer for determining a filly's future potential in North American horse racing. Out of 25 winners in this event, 20 were subsequently voted year-end champions. Previous winners that have gone on to shine more brightly past their freshman year include Preakness Stakes (Grade 1) winners Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009, as well as eventual Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) winners Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Open Mind in 1988 and Silverbulletday in 1998. The race's male counterpart, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1), has never been able to pull the same feat with the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) to date.

Since its first running in 1984, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies has been run at three different distances. The first two were contested at 8 furlongs before the event was changed to 1 1/16 miles in its third running. It was brought back to 1 mile for its fourth edition, when Epitome won, and had been at 1 1/16 miles until 2002 when it was lengthened to a full 9 furlongs to cater to the Arlington Park configuration of the oval. The 2003 running at the Santa Anita Park saw the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies reverting back to the more traditional 1 1/16 miles.

Considering the enormous amount of two-year-olds out there, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies surprisingly ranks near-bottom in the number of runners sent to the post each year, averaging at 11.3.

Favorites have held their own along the way. Eleven of them, including Sweet Catomine (2004), Halfbridled (2003), and Storm Flag Flying (2002), have gone on to claim the championship. 5-2 favorite Halfbridled did not disappoint as she tucked in behind runners having to angle in from the far outside post. Turning for home, she kicked into gear and blew right by the pace, drawing away to win by 2 1/2 lengths in a time of 1:42 3/5. But the test has also found its share of bombs crossing the wire in front.

Even at the onset, with 74-1 shot Fran's Valentine being disqualified down to tenth place, Outstandingly paid $47.60 when elevated to the win. After Epitome paid $62.80 when she won in 1987, the race held pretty true to form - until 1999, when Cash Run paid $67 for finishing a length and a quarter in front. Caressing bested that in 2000 by returning $96 for the victory.

It seems that fillies on the lead at the first call of the race have not fared well in the past Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies horse racing events. It was not until Flanders - who dueled on the front end with the legendary Serena's Song before winning by a head in 1994 - that a two-year-old filly in front at the first call proved best. Cash Run replicated the feat in 1999 at Gulfstream Park.

These are marked exceptions, however; the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies average beaten distance of the eventual winner at the first call is just over 4 1/2 lengths. Open Mind, who was part of a five-horse entry by D. Wayne Lukas, closed from more than 17 lengths back at the first call to win by about 2 lengths.

In terms of post position, consider that the inside has not been the place to be for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Only three winners in the first 20 runnings have come from the 1-3 gates, namely, Flanders, Cash Run, and Storm Flag Flying. Posts 4-7 posts account for eight winners, and outside posts (8 and beyond) have also produced nine heroines.

The 2003 running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies made jockey Julie Krone, riding two-year-old champion Halfbridled, the first female jockey to ever win a race in the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.

At the 2004 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Sweet Catomine triumphed as the champion at 2.30 odds with jockey Corey Nakatani. UAE's Balletto was runnerup at 4.10 odds with jockey Jerry Bailey, and Runway Model was on third place at 10.00 odds with jockey Rafael Bejarano.

In 2009, Rachel Alexandra ran the $300,000 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Belmont Park, with Calvin Borel as jockey. Facing only two other rivals, she was the 1-20 favorite and won the race by 19 1/4 lengths, breaking the stakes record with a time of 1:46:33 on a track listed as fast. She also broke the stakes record margin of victory of 13 1/2 lengths set by great Ruffian in 1975.

 

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